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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Kentucky has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+90%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Kentucky: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 229% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.05–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+229%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±198%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 229% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.05–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.330.030.62
20250.330.040.62
20260.330.040.63
20270.340.040.63
20280.340.050.63

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp1720181973
Beattyville 2320232006
Pippa Passes219971994
Monticello120221993
Phelps119971979
Campton119821982

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.