BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 492% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+492%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in West Virginia: up 492% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 2.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 2.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.15.7
20274.02.25.7
20284.02.35.8
20294.12.35.9
20304.22.45.9

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bemis3420252001
Wymer2720151995
Glade Run 22420252003
Green Bank2020251977
Glade Run1720021988
Glady1620252001
Richwood1120251980
Bismark820251977
Denmar820251980
Dailey820251973
Canaan720251974
Three Forks720251975
Valley Head620251966
Bowden520251993
Albright519741966
Stollings420211994
Ghent420241978
Yawkey420112007
Strange Crk420251992
Meadowville320251972
Bramwell220232003
Clear Creek220221995
Sutton220251993
Ruthbelle220251975
Hix120012001

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.