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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Alabama has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Green Warbler in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Alabama is projected to rise about 263% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±336%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+263%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±336%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Alabama is projected to rise about 263% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±336%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.57
20270.280.000.57
20280.280.000.57
20290.280.000.57
20300.280.000.57

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden Springs 23020242001
Pine Grove920142014
Sunny Eve320251966
Wedowee220072003
Mentone220232014
Nixburg 2120112005
Woodville120192019
Greensport120222022
Vernon120102010
Choccolocco120182009
Howard120112011
Maytown120021966
Talladega120122000
Liberty City119821982
Youngtown120252008
Odenville120172009

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.