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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1994.

13×Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.16–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.16–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.310.120.50
20270.320.130.51
20280.330.140.52
20290.340.150.53
20300.350.160.54

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark Nf820251992
Dry Fork520232005
Waldron320252008
Hatfield 2220252018
Dry Fork 2220252024
Magazine Mtn120152011
Boston Mtn.120252011
Sims120192010
Rudy120212011
Fulton119991999

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.