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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas has surged: up 950% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+950%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Arkansas: up 950% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.14–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.14–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.110.41
20260.270.120.42
20270.280.120.43
20280.290.130.44
20290.290.140.45

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry Fork520232005
Dry Fork 2320242024
Ozark Nf220241992
Waldron220232008
Magazine Mtn120152011
Boston Mtn.120242011
Sims120192010
Hatfield 2120242018
Rudy120212011
Fulton119991999

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.