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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 751% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+751%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 751% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.491.4
20260.950.511.4
20270.970.531.4
20280.990.541.4
20291.00.561.4

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountain Lk.1420181992
Pine Mtn.1020241996
Iron Mountain 2920132012
Iron Mountain 3920232014
Iron Mtn.720111992
Covington620241966
W Augusta520241967
Gr North Mtn520231993
Glenwood520231992
Rural Retrt420241985
Big Meadows320181993
Marion319771976
Bald Knob220241992
Saltville220231978
Elamsville220161992
Cornland219751975
Jerome120082005
New Market120122002
Douthat120141994
Shenandoa Np120141995
Isom120001972
Putnam120171977
Walkers120092005
Pw Forest Pk120041998
Amherst120072007

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.