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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 777% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+777%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 776% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 0.90 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.58–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 0.90 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.58–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.511.4
20270.970.531.4
20280.980.551.4
20291.00.561.4
20301.00.581.5

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountain Lk.1420181992
Pine Mtn.1020251996
Covington920251966
Iron Mountain 2920132012
Iron Mountain 3920232014
Iron Mtn.720111992
W Augusta620251967
Bald Knob520251992
Glenwood520231992
Big Meadows520251993
Gr North Mtn320251993
Marion319771976
Rural Retrt220251985
Putnam220251977
Saltville220231978
Elamsville220161992
Cornland219751975
Jerome120082005
New Market120122002
Douthat120141994
Shenandoa Np120141995
Isom120001972
Walkers120092005
Pw Forest Pk120041998
Amherst120072007

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.