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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 623% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+623%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Tennessee: up 623% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.15.4
20263.82.25.4
20273.92.35.5
20283.92.35.5
20294.02.45.6

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mecca2920231994
Newfound Gap2720241990
Mcfarland2219931967
Harbuck2020231994
Tellico1020241995
Cades Cove1020241989
Elk Valley520221970
Willis Sprng320231994
Signal Mtn220211982
Walland219871966
Fish Springs220231966
Smokey Jct120191966
Oliver Spgs120031998
Jones Gap120061982
Cornpone120221990
Red Bank119731969
Jasper120192010

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.