Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

Black-throated Green Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.22.5
20261.91.22.6
20271.91.22.6
20281.91.22.6
20292.01.32.7

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hovland3120241973
Blackduck3020222004
Lockport2320241967
Bigfork1120241993
Chisholm1120242019
Sawbill Camp1020241993
Jordan1020231993
Sherry Lake720221974
Cromwell520241967
Island Lake420171975
Bena419771967
Cass Lake320161980
Floodwood320221970
Cohasset320221974
Red Lake320241993
Sawbill Lndg220241973
Bemidji219681967
Debs220241970
Little Fork219701970
Lude220171992
Glendale220241993
Tamarac Nwr120161991
Nebish120232011
Princeton119931993
Backus120212015

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.