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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 499% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+499%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 499% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 181% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.08–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+181%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 181% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.08–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.070.35
20260.210.070.36
20270.220.070.36
20280.220.070.36
20290.220.080.37

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mohican S.F.320241992
Zaleski S.F.220211995
Bolins Mills220102003
Garrettsvile219751975
Strongsville219741967
Shawnee S.F. 2220022001
Marion120092009
Wayne N.F.120142014
Shawnee S.F.119981995
Tar Hollow120211997
Scioto Trail120071998
Baxter Ridge120111998
Dresden120191989
Dell120102010
Lenox120231984
Birmingham120222008
Smithfield120222022
Petersburg119971997

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.