BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in New York has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Green Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Green Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 115% by 2030 — from 0.98 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.78–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±290.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±290.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 115% by 2030 — from 0.98 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.78–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±290.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.743.4
20272.10.753.4
20282.10.763.4
20292.10.773.4
20302.10.783.4

Black-throated Green Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet3220171979
Old Forge2320061971
Sabattis2119831966
Blue Ridge S1720101969
Dexter Lake1519751975
Old Forge 21520192007
Downsville1020191982
N Wilmurt919981967
Oxford619761967
Mckeever620221974
Highmarket620251967
North River620251966
Dannemora620061968
St Regis Fls620171976
S Horicon520181968
Petersburg420151968
Mcdonough420171967
Sheridan420241967
Number Four420161967
Warrensburg420191966
Gabriels420251975
Tupper Lake419741968
S Berne 2420252015
Corbettsvile320251966
Oneonta320251968

Black-throated Green Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.