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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Kentucky has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+171%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Kentucky: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Kentucky is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Kentucky is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.63.4
20272.51.73.4
20282.61.73.4
20292.61.73.5
20302.61.73.5

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasurevill1120251980
Plum1020251979
Hodgenville 2920232008
Hudson820251966
Eastview820251967
Glencoe820181966
Merrimac720241973
Johnsonville720211969
Million 2720242006
Boxville619831981
Shelbyville619781966
Buena Vista620171966
East Union620251982
Sewell Shop520251972
Sulphur Lick420241978
Mcbrayer420251967
Goshen419991966
Kehoe419921966
Riverqueen320252010
Morganfield320252022
Lebanon Junction320252000
Lovelacevile220191973
Shiloh220251972
Canton220251973
Iron Bridge219881967

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.