BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in North Dakota has surged: up 333% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+333%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in North Dakota: up 333% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in North Dakota is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in North Dakota is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.75.18.3
20266.85.28.4
20276.95.38.5
20287.05.48.6
20297.15.58.7

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns2920241980
Cooperstown2220241969
Edgeley1920241980
Denbigh1920241968
Loraine1520191982
Kempton1120171967
Buchanan1020241967
Regan820221974
Emerado720241973
Walcott620231967
Lake George620211968
Sheyenne Lk620241980
Montpelier620241990
Forman520241968
Sydney519831979
Wimbledon520241981
Webster520011989
Solen520242005
Horsehead Lk420241980
Douglas Crk420241982
Braddock420221988
Rolla320071969
Carpio320231967
Wild Rose320241982
Powers Lake320241982

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.