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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Minnesota has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Warbling Vireo in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.53.3
20272.41.63.3
20282.41.63.3
20292.41.63.3
20302.41.63.3

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee2720211979
Greenbush1920251995
Fairmont1520251993
Chokio North1420251993
Worthington1220252004
Sherburne Nr1120251990
Appleton1020251979
Chatfield 21020252003
Tracy920252004
New London920241994
Glenwood920191993
Ashby920212003
Lakeville720251968
Beltrami720251967
Lake Bronson720111978
Lockhart720251993
Huntley620251968
St Stephen620161967
Whitewater620001994
Minnetonka520251969
Knapp520251967
Chokio520251979
Chatfield419991967
Chandler420251975
Ash Creek420251976

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.