BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in South Dakota has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+172%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in South Dakota: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in South Dakota is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.0–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in South Dakota is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.0–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.12.77.5
20265.22.87.5
20275.22.87.6
20285.32.97.6
20295.33.07.7

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hill City3320131994
Silver City3220121992
Roubaix Lk2819911967
Long Draw2320241992
Rochford2020181996
Custer1520241967
Howard1420241970
Black Fox1220171992
Norbeck1120021992
Volga920241967
Raymond920211968
Veblen920231983
Englewood820211992
Lightning Cr820221992
Wilmot720241967
Britton720231967
Elk Mountain720041992
Hazelrodt720241992
Roswell619951971
Lennox420241967
Tripp420241971
Geddes420221989
Lane 2420142002
Laplant319751972
Rosebud220111967

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.