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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Arkansas has surged: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+220%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Arkansas: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.06–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.06–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.040.83
20270.440.040.83
20280.450.050.84
20290.450.060.85
20300.460.060.85

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend620251967
Ramsey419871971
Hughes420231967
Centerton420252010
Boston Mtn.320252019
Ulm319901987
Hatfield 2220232017
Crowley'S Ridge220252011
Saffell220101978
Sims220232010
Kelso220112011
Rudy220252013
Wilson220162012
Locust Bayou120231994
Stamps119791974
Hope120252025
Ozark Nf120252013
Crows119721969
Poyen120072007
Blakely119721970
Harrisburg119671967
Rupert120061984
Stark120252025
Coal Hill120091968
Massard120061973

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.