BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in New Mexico has surged: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+244%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in New Mexico: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.06.0
20274.02.06.1
20284.12.06.1
20294.12.16.1
20304.12.16.2

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft7420251978
Vallecitos3220251994
Cebolla3020231973
Angel Fire 22020252005
Mt. Taylor 21720242014
Mt. Taylor1720121993
Ojo Sarco1320251968
Gallinas1320251992
Angel Fire920021992
Bluewater Lake920211999
Reserve320231993
Red Rock320252005
Emory Pass320251993
Capulin219931993
Fence Lake220092006
Vicks Peak220252003
Claunch 2220242001
La Cienega120032003
Valencia119961996
Claunch119951995
Horse Mtn119711969
Carrizozo120021978
Maxwell120232005
Counselor120162016
Mcgaffey120232000

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.