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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Virginia has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+103%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Virginia: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Virginia is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.05–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Virginia is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.05–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.050.40
20270.220.050.40
20280.220.050.40
20290.230.050.40
20300.230.050.40

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edinburg420251992
Rural Retrt420251987
Natural Brid420251974
Surry420211982
Blacksburg420251988
Taylorstown320071969
Stanley320251966
Taylorstown 2320242012
Nat Tunnel219961996
Newbern219781970
Star Tannery120251977
Churchville120151976
Tryme120181976
Jerome120252007
Port Royal119871987
Partlow119831983
Isom119771969
Putnam119741969
Covington119671966
Fincastle120251967
Amherst120001975
Big Island120041977
Covesville120241978
Carters Brdg119811975
Shipman119741969

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.