BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in New York has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+275%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in New York: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.2 (95% range 4.1–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.2 (95% range 4.1–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.96.2
20265.13.96.2
20275.14.06.3
20285.24.06.4
20295.24.16.4

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meridale2420241967
Watertown2320121967
Castile1920241969
Churchville1920241968
Duanesburg1820241966
Nashville1720181967
Orleans1520241971
Macdougall1320241969
Byron1320241967
St Johnsburg1220241967
Salem1220241967
Balmat1220081977
Cobleskill1120231966
Cayuga1120241969
Crescent1120241998
Milford1120231978
Oneida1020101968
Mcdonough920171967
Corbettsvile920241966
Rushville920241968
West Bangor919991990
Mt Hope820101967
Medusa820241969
Dryden820241967
Pulaski820241969

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.