BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in New York has surged: up 331% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+331%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Warbling Vireo Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in New York: up 331% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Warbling Vireo Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in New York is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in New York is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.34.06.6
20275.34.06.7
20285.44.16.7
20295.44.16.8
20305.54.26.8

Warbling Vireo Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macdougall3620251969
Naples2620251966
Churchville2320251968
Watertown2320121967
Castile1920251969
Meridale1820251967
Nashville1720181967
Duanesburg1420251966
Byron1420251967
Pulaski1420251969
Oriskany Fls1220251967
Balmat1220081977
S Berne 21220252014
Harris Hill1220252005
Cobleskill1120231966
Crescent1120241998
Milford1120231978
East Java1020251967
St Johnsburg1020251967
Oneida1020101968
Rhinebeck920251966
Mcdonough920171967
North Easton920251967
West Bangor919991990
Philadelphia920251980

Warbling Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.