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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Kentucky has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+15%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Warbler in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.13
20260.050.000.13
20270.050.000.13
20280.050.000.13
20290.050.000.13

Swainson's Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beattyville 2220232012
Cumberlnd Gp120181973
Sunnybrook120162016
Monticello120222019
Bardwell119991999
Pippa Passes119881988
Bardwell 2120242023
Phelps119951979
Campton120192019
Paintsville119951983

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.