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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Texas has surged: up 278% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+278%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Warbler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.020.26
20270.140.020.27
20280.140.020.27
20290.150.020.27
20300.150.030.27

Swainson's Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fred720251995
Big Sandy Bith520242015
Hearne320251999
Town Bluff320251994
Athens320232015
Lance Rosier Bith220192014
Caledonia220251993
Bon Wier220251996
Easton219941994
Oak Grove 2120112011
Paige120242024
Cayuga120242024
Chandler 2120092009
Livingston120241970
New Waverly120071969
Gause119971996
Diboll120251975
Powell Park 2120242024
Morton120251974
Crossroads120252005
Easton 2120242024
Union Hill120231994
Liberty Hill120252025
Alexander St120251995
Powell Park120101997

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.