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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Georgia has surged: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+382%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Warbler Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Warbler has surged in Georgia: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Swainson's Warbler Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.02–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.02–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.010.29
20260.150.020.29
20270.160.020.30
20280.160.020.30
20290.160.020.30

Swainson's Warbler Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deepstep420232015
Mountain Cty320241980
Cuthbert220241980
Rentz220232001
Workmore220172013
Barges220242023
Yates Crossroads220232012
Harrietts Bl119951995
Darien120011983
Stockton120241997
Baxley120152006
Fowlstown120082002
Fitzgerald120222022
Piedmont Nwr119911991
Courthouse120141977
Guyton119891987
Wrightsville120192018
Hawkinsville120242019
Forsyth120242016
Nashville120162016
Cotton120241972
Coffee Co120142014
Henderson120242010
Doles120152015
Baldwin119811981

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.