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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Florida has surged: up 302% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+302%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Warbler has surged in Florida: up 302% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Swainson's Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.23
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.120.000.23
20290.120.000.23

Swainson's Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seminole Hills 2720222002
New Hope620112009
Bloxham420221994
Miller Xrds320191988
Bristol320192001
Betts220192016
Callahan220111987
Alligator Pt220241989
Oak Grove119991976
Blountstown120171986
Broad Branch120242011
Apalachicola120181995
Seminole Hls119981990
Telogia119851971
Covington120211970
Belmont120151981
St Augustine119731973
Hilliard120142014
Laurel Hill120242023
Eglin A.F.B.120101995
Blackwater119941994
Defuniak Spr120061988
Hixtown Swmp120181994
Ft Mccoy120042004
Oak Grove 2120242024

Swainson's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasgeorgiakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.