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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Kentucky has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+52%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has risen sharply in Kentucky: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Kentucky is projected to rise about 250% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±542.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+250%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±542.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Kentucky is projected to rise about 250% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±542.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.80
20260.370.000.80
20270.370.000.80
20280.370.000.81
20290.380.000.81

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp520181967
Campton220212008
Beattyville 2220242006
Monticello120161992
Pippa Passes119971993
Mckee120242024
Phelps119951993
Kehoe 2120112011

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.