BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in New York has surged: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+380%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in New York: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in New York is projected to rise about 155% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+155%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in New York is projected to rise about 155% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.993.7
20262.41.03.8
20272.41.03.8
20282.41.13.8
20292.51.13.8

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blue Ridge S3620101969
Inlet3120171979
Number Four2119981969
Sabattis2019831966
Underwood 21720092005
Newcomb1620221971
Gabriels1320241975
Hope Falls1219951968
St Regis Fls1020171976
Mcdonough920171991
Swain820071972
Blue Ridge N820241969
Warrensburg820191966
Old Forge 2820192007
Horseshoe L.820171993
Platte Cove720181972
North River620071966
Wanakena620241980
Corbettsvile520241966
Dexter Lake519751969
Sciota520061989
Parishville420242005
Highland320121970
W Shokan320191970
Pulaski320231976

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.