BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in New Jersey has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+35%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-headed Vireo in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in New Jersey is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.01–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.010.24
20260.120.010.24
20270.130.010.24
20280.130.010.24
20290.130.010.24

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope319861986
Bloomsbury220241997
Sandbrook120042004
Midvale119861986
Kemah Lake120041995
High Point120241988
Ramseysburg120242010

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.