BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina has surged: up 899% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+899%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in North Carolina: up 899% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.982.7
20271.91.02.7
20281.91.02.8
20291.91.02.8
20301.91.12.8

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kyle3620241994
Highlands1520251994
Cullowhee1420251974
French Broad River1320252001
Cherokee1020252011
Linville1020251976
Table Rock820221994
Fontana820251968
Durham720212002
Andrews719981994
Waterville620251994
N. Mills Riv619951994
Lloyd Xroads520012001
Oteen420241980
Todd320251995
Ashland320211999
Rose219971997
Oakboro219781978
Jonas Ridge219711968
Madison219771977
Gupton220162011
Pinelog220252002
Murphy220241997
Waco220181992
Raeford120251992

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.