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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

11×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in North Carolina: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.992.7
20261.91.02.8
20271.91.02.8
20281.91.12.8
20292.01.12.8

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kyle3620241994
Cullowhee1620241974
Cherokee1420242011
Fontana1220241968
Highlands1220241994
Linville1220241976
French Broad River1220242001
Table Rock820221994
Durham720212002
Andrews719981994
N. Mills Riv619951994
Lloyd Xroads520012001
Waterville420241994
Brevard420241970
Oteen420241980
Todd320231995
Ashland320211999
Rose219971997
Oakboro219781978
Jonas Ridge219711968
Madison219771977
Sturgills220242001
Gupton220162011
Murphy220241997
Waco220181992

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.