BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Vermont has surged: up 642% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+642%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Vermont: up 642% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 0.92–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 0.92–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.833.9
20272.40.853.9
20282.40.873.9
20292.40.903.9
20302.40.923.9

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newbury 21020232005
Stratton920251969
Waterville919801979
Landgrove720251969
Newbury520041986
Stowe520241988
East Haven420251975
Grand Isle420251976
Marlboro320251967
Northfld Fls320251980
East Calais320251975
Hinesburg319881982
Gaysville220251966
Shaftsbury220251966
North Pownal120231968
S Reading120241970
Post Mills120221975
S Wallingfrd120171980
W Rutland120011992
St Johnsbury120251970
Middlesex120251968
Hardwick120161966
Greensboro120251967
Fletcher120211983
Colchester120241998

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.