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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia has surged: up 865% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+865%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Virginia: up 865% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia is projected to rise about 97% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia is projected to rise about 97% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.932.0
20271.50.952.1
20281.50.982.1
20291.61.02.1
20301.61.02.2

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glenwood1820231996
Iron Mountain 31520232014
Mountain Lk.1320181992
Tryme1120061995
Iron Mountain 21020132012
Potts Mtn.1020131995
Big Meadows620251993
Gr North Mtn520251993
Iron Mtn.420111997
Loft Mtn420231993
Shenandoa Np420251994
Bald Knob320251992
Covington320251967
Clinchport319691969
W Augusta220251968
Nat Tunnel220252025
Rural Retrt220251983
Isom220231991
Putnam220251970
Fincastle220251968
Pine Mtn.220241996
Saltville220251981
New Market220251992
Star Tannery120252025
Churchville120072007

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.