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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Virginia: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.972.0
20261.51.02.1
20271.61.02.1
20281.61.12.1
20291.61.12.2

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glenwood1820231996
Iron Mountain 31520232014
Mountain Lk.1320181992
Tryme1120061995
Iron Mountain 21020132012
Potts Mtn.1020131995
Big Meadows920241993
Gr North Mtn820241993
W Augusta720241968
Bald Knob720241992
Fincastle619771968
Rural Retrt520241983
Iron Mtn.420111997
Loft Mtn420231993
Saltville420241981
Front Royal320241993
Clinchport319691969
Shenandoa Np320241994
Isom220231991
Covington220241967
Pine Mtn.220241996
New Market220241992
Churchville120072007
Stanley120231990
Edinburg120232012

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.