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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Minnesota: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.61–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.61–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.561.1
20260.840.571.1
20270.860.591.1
20280.870.601.1
20290.880.611.2

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan920231993
Mille Lacs619981994
Sawbill Lndg620241974
Sawbill Camp620241993
Chisholm520242019
Hart Lake420241967
Sherry Lake420221970
Lockport320241972
Crane Lake320241969
Babbitt320231995
Floodwood220241972
Debs220171972
Waskish220241981
Nett Lake220242013
Bigfork220241997
Hartland119971997
Big Stone120042004
Minnetonka120082008
Cass Lake120161981
Nebish120221982
Osseo120022002
St Stephen119951995
Cromwell120241969
Wigwam Bay120232023
Backus119851982

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.