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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Minnesota: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.64–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.64–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.591.1
20270.880.601.1
20280.890.611.2
20290.900.631.2
20300.910.641.2

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Lndg1220251974
Jordan1120251993
Hart Lake820251967
Lockport720251972
Mille Lacs619981994
Sawbill Camp620251993
Chisholm520242019
Sherry Lake420221970
Floodwood320251972
Babbitt320251995
Debs220171972
Crane Lake220251969
Waskish220241981
Nett Lake220242013
Mcgregor220251996
Glendale220252004
Red Lake220251995
Hartland119971997
Big Stone120042004
Minnetonka120082008
Cass Lake120161981
Nebish120221982
Osseo120022002
St Stephen119951995
Cromwell120251969

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.