BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Tennessee has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Tennessee: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.992.5
20271.81.02.5
20281.81.12.5
20291.81.12.6
20301.91.12.6

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newfound Gap1720251990
Willis Sprng1420231994
Fish Springs1120231966
Cades Cove1020251989
Tellico720251995
Elk Valley720251975
Harbuck520232008
Mecca420231994
Mcfarland319881971
Lewis Forest320192019
Smokey Jct120221995
Signal Mtn120051984
Oliver Spgs120162004
Jones Gap120191986
Walland119661966
Cornpone120222006
Jasper120021991

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.