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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Michigan has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

34×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-headed Vireo Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Michigan: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Michigan is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.85–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Michigan is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.85–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.761.9
20261.40.782.0
20271.40.802.0
20281.40.832.0
20291.40.852.0

Blue-headed Vireo Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scott'S Marsh1720102006
Cluster Lakes1520102006
Betchler Lks1020241992
Pine River720211992
Frederic620011980
Big Island Lake620102008
Gooseneck520102008
Harrietta420241990
Bootjack420231993
Ishpeming420231980
Big Blue Lk419921992
Riggsville420181989
Sidnaw420241993
Ensign420102006
Gibbs City320241979
Maple Grove320241980
Shingleton320241980
Muskallonge320241978
Chippewa Lk.320052005
Seney Nwr320231992
Barry S.G.A.320121997
Ned Lake220241986
Brocky Lake220241980
Creighton220231979
Tahquamenon220241979

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.