BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-headed Vireo Population Analysis

VireonidaeForest birdsVireo solitarius

Blue-headed Vireo has surged: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+335%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
781RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Blue-headed Vireo

The Blue-headed Vireo (Vireo solitarius) is a North American member of the Vireos (Vireonidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6 in long (11–15 cm) — a small, deliberate songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 781 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 23 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Vireonidae · Forest birds

Notable Blue-headed Vireo TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in surveyed states: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.40–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.40–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.380.70
20270.550.390.71
20280.550.390.72
20290.560.400.72
20300.570.400.73

Where the Blue-headed Vireo Is Detected

BBS routes recording Blue-headed Vireo, sized by most recent count.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend by State

Blue-headed Vireo population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+280%19909
Connecticut-7%197416
Georgia+73%197625
Kentucky+52%19808
Maine+203%196878
Maryland14×196811
Massachusetts+577%196922
Michigan32×197675
Minnesota11×196940
New Hampshire+206%196826
New Jersey+37%19927
New York+286%196893
North Carolina+899%197050
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a1
Ohio-3%199211
Pennsylvania52×1968100
Rhode Island-33%19795
South Carolina+404%198718
Tennessee16×196817
Vermont+642%196825
Virginia+865%196947
West Virginia22×197150
Wisconsin+443%196847

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Blue-headed Vireo population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Boreal Hardwood Transition12×1968117
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+360%196852
Atlantic Northern Forest+281%1968155
Prairie Hardwood Transition+141%197242
Southeastern Coastal Plain+26%199012
Appalachian Mountains17×1968290
Piedmont+92%197667
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+140%196841

Blue-headed Vireo Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 335% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.