BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo

VireonidaeForest birdsVireo solitarius

Blue-headed Vireo has surged: up 411% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+411%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
772RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Blue-headed Vireo

The Blue-headed Vireo (Vireo solitarius) is a North American member of the Vireos (Vireonidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6 in long (11–15 cm) — a small, deliberate songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 772 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 23 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Vireonidae · Forest birds

Notable Blue-headed Vireo TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in surveyed states: up 411% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.42–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.42–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.400.70
20260.560.410.71
20270.560.410.72
20280.570.420.72
20290.580.420.73

Where the Blue-headed Vireo Is Detected

BBS routes recording Blue-headed Vireo, sized by most recent count.

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend by State

Blue-headed Vireo population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+287%19908
Connecticut+27%197416
Georgia+117%197624
Kentucky+52%19808
Maine+253%196878
Maryland17×196811
Massachusetts+994%196922
Michigan34×197675
Minnesota11×196940
New Hampshire+296%196826
New Jersey+35%19927
New York+380%196893
North Carolina11×197050
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a1
Ohio+41%199211
Pennsylvania63×1968100
Rhode Island-33%19795
South Carolina+428%198715
Tennessee14×196817
Vermont+804%196825
Virginia13×196945
West Virginia23×197148
Wisconsin+518%196847

Blue-headed Vireo Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Blue-headed Vireo population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Boreal Hardwood Transition12×1968117
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+550%196852
Atlantic Northern Forest+387%1968155
Prairie Hardwood Transition+231%197242
Southeastern Coastal Plain-32%199010
Appalachian Mountains19×1968284
Piedmont+136%197666
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+204%196841

Blue-headed Vireo Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 410% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.