BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+231%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±545.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±545.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±545.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.23
20260.110.000.23
20270.120.000.23
20280.120.000.23
20290.120.000.23

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN41992
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN32005
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN32012
RemusMICHIGAN21997
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN22012
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN22019
LoraineWISCONSIN22018
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12010
LawrenceMICHIGAN11978
BravoMICHIGAN12012
NashvilleMICHIGAN11994
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN12005
BeldingMICHIGAN11998
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12018
MontereyMICHIGAN12024
FowlervilleMICHIGAN12015
HungerfordMICHIGAN12024
Belding 2MICHIGAN12006
LapeerMICHIGAN12006
RochesterMICHIGAN12013
HartlandMICHIGAN12001
AlmenaMICHIGAN12004
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN12017
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA12008
OsseoMINNESOTA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.