BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

12×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.7–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.7–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.52.7
20262.11.62.7
20272.21.62.8
20282.21.62.8
20292.21.72.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN172010
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN152010
Betchler LksMICHIGAN102024
JordanMINNESOTA92023
Pine RiverMICHIGAN72021
FredericMICHIGAN62001
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN62010
Mille LacsMINNESOTA61998
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA62024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA62024
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN62024
GooseneckMICHIGAN52010
ChisholmMINNESOTA52024
ChaffeyWISCONSIN52024
Iron RiverWISCONSIN52024
BootjackMICHIGAN42023
IshpemingMICHIGAN42023
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN42018
HarriettaMICHIGAN42024
SidnawMICHIGAN42024
EnsignMICHIGAN42010
Hart LakeMINNESOTA42024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA42022
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN32024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.