BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Piedmont has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+136%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Piedmont: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Blue-headed Vireo In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Piedmont is projected to rise about 140% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+140%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Piedmont is projected to rise about 140% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.030.38
20260.210.030.38
20270.210.030.39
20280.210.030.39
20290.210.040.39

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrymeVIRGINIA112006
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA72021
Ball GroundGEORGIA52021
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA42003
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA42024
GrovetownGEORGIA31981
JulietteGEORGIA32016
AshlandNORTH-CAROLINA32021
SharonGEORGIA22022
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA21978
MadisonNORTH-CAROLINA21977
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA22018
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA22016
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA22007
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA22011
BlacksburgSOUTH-CAROLINA21999
WedoweeALABAMA12008
ForsythGEORGIA11994
CrestGEORGIA12018
LincolntonGEORGIA12008
MaxeysGEORGIA12017
BaldwinGEORGIA12007
SiloamGEORGIA11967
BowdonGEORGIA12016
RutledgeGEORGIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.