BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 550% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+550%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 550% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-headed Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 241% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.22–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+241%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 241% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.22–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.190.76
20260.480.200.76
20270.490.200.77
20280.490.210.77
20290.500.220.78

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK42024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA42022
HighlandNEW-YORK32012
W ShokanNEW-YORK32019
PulaskiNEW-YORK32023
OneidaNEW-YORK31992
BalmatNEW-YORK32008
HinesburgVERMONT31988
MacdougallNEW-YORK22001
MendonNEW-YORK22019
Alder CreekNEW-YORK22003
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21998
WillsboroNEW-YORK22021
ShaftsburyVERMONT22023
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12007
CatskillsNEW-YORK12015
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11994
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11997
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12024
CayugaNEW-YORK12018
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12022
BranchportNEW-YORK12022
Canadice LNEW-YORK12021
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12015
West SenecaNEW-YORK12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.