BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+204%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 199% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.09–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+199%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 199% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.09–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.080.37
20260.230.080.38
20270.230.080.38
20280.230.090.38
20290.240.090.38

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT52011
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS51976
ShermanCONNECTICUT32019
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND32018
GreenwichCONNECTICUT21975
Kittery PtMAINE22022
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS21979
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS22023
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS22023
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND22022
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND21992
MysticCONNECTICUT11996
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11991
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT12011
WoodstockCONNECTICUT11991
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT12022
DanburyCONNECTICUT11998
Long HillCONNECTICUT11988
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT11995
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT12021
Warren 2CONNECTICUT12024
GranbyCONNECTICUT12024
Cape NeddickMAINE12024
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.