BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-headed Vireo In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

17×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
290Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-headed Vireo In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.4–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.4–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.92.23.5
20272.92.33.6
20283.02.33.6
20293.02.43.7
20303.12.43.7

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA362024
GlenwoodVIRGINIA182023
Newfound GapTENNESSEE172025
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA172002
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA162025
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA152025
Iron Mountain 3VIRGINIA152023
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA142025
LynchPENNSYLVANIA142025
Willis SprngTENNESSEE142023
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA132025
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA132018
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA132008
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA132025
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA122021
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA112018
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA112022
Fish SpringsTENNESSEE112023
BaxterGEORGIA102022
JenningsMARYLAND102025
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA102025
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA102025
Cades CoveTENNESSEE102025
Potts Mtn.VIRGINIA102013
Iron Mountain 2VIRGINIA102013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.