BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-headed Vireo In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Blue-headed Vireo in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 387% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+387%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-headed Vireo has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 387% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.4–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-headed Vireo in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.4–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.27.4
20265.43.37.4
20275.43.37.5
20285.53.47.5
20295.53.47.6

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Blue-headed Vireo in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE471981
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK362010
InletNEW-YORK312017
NesowadnehunMAINE232021
Number FourNEW-YORK211998
SabattisNEW-YORK201983
Carrying PlMAINE192024
Underwood 2NEW-YORK172009
NewcombNEW-YORK162022
Wilson MillsMAINE152024
Seboomook LkMAINE152014
CastineMAINE142006
Clayton LakeMAINE142008
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE132000
GabrielsNEW-YORK132024
Baker Lake 2MAINE122011
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Hope FallsNEW-YORK121995
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
CooperMAINE102021
CharlestonMAINE102019
Forest StaMAINE102000
YankeetuladiMAINE102009
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.