BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Virginia

All statesVirginia

50 species in this guild. As a group they are +15%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.33.65.0
20264.33.65.0
20274.33.65.0
20284.33.65.0
20294.33.65.0

Member Species In Virginia

Forest birds species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-90%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-90%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-85%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-75%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-62%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-61%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-56%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-54%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-43%
American RobinTurdidae-39%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae-19%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae-18%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-9%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae-6%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae-5%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-2%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+3%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+32%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+40%
Pine WarblerParulidae+41%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+58%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+59%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+76%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+83%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+91%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+99%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+100%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+106%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+115%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+153%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+153%
OvenbirdParulidae+157%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+169%
Northern ParulaParulidae+173%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+174%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+192%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+193%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+229%
Canada WarblerParulidae+266%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+362%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+385%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+402%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+408%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+428%
American RedstartParulidae+432%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+502%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+581%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+751%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae13×
VeeryTurdidae39×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.