BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Virginia

All statesVirginia

50 species in this guild. As a group they are +15%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.33.65.0
20264.33.65.0
20274.33.65.0
20284.33.65.0
20294.33.65.0

Member Species In Virginia

Forest birds species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-90%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-90%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-85%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-75%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-62%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-61%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-56%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-54%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-43%
American RobinTurdidae-39%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae-19%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae-18%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-9%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae-6%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae-5%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-2%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+3%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+32%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+40%
Pine WarblerParulidae+41%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+58%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+59%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+76%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+83%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+91%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+99%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+100%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+106%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+115%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+153%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+153%
OvenbirdParulidae+157%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+169%
Northern ParulaParulidae+173%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+174%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+192%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+193%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+229%
Canada WarblerParulidae+266%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+362%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+385%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+402%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+408%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+428%
American RedstartParulidae+432%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+502%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+581%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+751%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae13×
VeeryTurdidae39×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.