BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Virginia

All statesVirginia

71 species in this guild. As a group they are -6%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.1–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.1–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.04.15.9
20275.04.15.9
20285.04.15.9
20295.04.15.9
20305.04.15.8

Member Species In Virginia

Forest birds species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-94%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-90%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-87%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-85%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-71%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-68%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-62%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-60%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-59%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-56%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-56%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-55%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-55%
Blue JayCorvidae-48%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-43%
American RobinTurdidae-37%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-29%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-28%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-23%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-20%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae-18%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae-15%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-12%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-9%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae-2%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-1%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+1%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+3%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+6%
Pine WarblerParulidae+24%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+33%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+36%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+40%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+49%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+56%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+59%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+70%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+71%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+76%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+82%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+85%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+86%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+86%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+93%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+103%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+108%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+117%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+122%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+123%
OvenbirdParulidae+137%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+147%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+161%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+166%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+172%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+188%
Northern ParulaParulidae+201%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+203%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+205%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+220%
Canada WarblerParulidae+262%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+338%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+362%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+395%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+429%
American RedstartParulidae+438%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+467%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+468%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+557%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+777%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+865%
VeeryTurdidae32×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.