BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+174%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blackburnian Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blackburnian Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.43
20260.200.000.44
20270.200.000.44
20280.200.000.44
20290.200.000.44

Blackburnian Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountain Lk.620181992
W Augusta520241967
Big Meadows420242022
Marion319821982
Bald Knob220221997
Shenandoa Np220242018
Iron Mountain 3220232022
Saltville120211976
Edinburg119781978
Rural Retrt120241982
Gr North Mtn120242002
Isom119731970
Putnam119701970
Covington120232023
Chincoteag W120082008
Iron Mtn.120081992
Loft Mtn119941994

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.