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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+204%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blackburnian Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blackburnian Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.79–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.79–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.732.6
20261.70.742.6
20271.70.762.6
20281.70.772.6
20291.70.792.6

Blackburnian Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry Lake1920221969
Lockport1620241967
Sawbill Lndg1520241973
Jordan1220231993
Blackduck1220222004
Sawbill Camp1120241993
Chisholm1120242019
Crane Lake1020241969
Hart Lake920241968
Bena519771977
Nett Lake420242013
Nebish320231982
Mahtowa320231995
Glendale320241993
Tamarac Nwr220111995
Mille Lacs220101969
Backus219901986
Hovland220241973
Cohasset220181973
Debs220171969
Waskish220232023
Babbitt220231994
Cass Lake120161980
Princeton119701970
Cromwell120241967

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.