BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 763% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+763%Since 1978
6Routes In State
31Years

Notable Blackburnian Warbler Trends in Tennessee

long arc increasecomputed index

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Tennessee: up 763% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Blackburnian Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.07–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029
0.20Projected 2029 index
0.07–0.3495% range
±56%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.180.050.32
20260.190.050.33
20270.190.060.33
20280.200.060.34
20290.200.070.34

Blackburnian Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee.
Newfound Gap520241990
Tellico120211997
Harbuck120132003
Cades Cove120242013
Fish Springs120221974
Elk Valley120081975

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.