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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 931% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+931%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blackburnian Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Blackburnian Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.08–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.08–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.060.36
20270.210.060.37
20280.220.070.37
20290.230.070.38
20300.230.080.38

Blackburnian Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newfound Gap820251990
Tellico120211997
Harbuck120132003
Cades Cove120242013
Fish Springs120221974
Elk Valley120081975

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.