BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

15×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blackburnian Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in West Virginia: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blackburnian Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.511.4
20270.950.531.4
20280.970.551.4
20290.990.571.4
20301.00.591.4

Blackburnian Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run 21920252003
Glade Run820021989
Glady720252001
Green Bank620251979
Wymer520151995
Denmar420251980
Bemis320252002
Valley Head320241966
Bowden220242004
Dailey220251975
Ruthbelle220222013
Hix120042004
Smoot119931993
Pedro120232008
Hanover120222022
Bismark119951995
Canaan120251974
Three Forks120081999
Strange Crk120082008
Richwood120252006
Mo Of Seneca120242008
Albright119731969
Meadowville120251984
Sleepy Creek119761976
Clinton119781978

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.