BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

14×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blackburnian Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in West Virginia: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blackburnian Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.481.3
20260.930.501.4
20270.950.521.4
20280.970.541.4
20290.990.561.4

Blackburnian Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run 21620242003
Glade Run820021989
Bemis820242002
Glady620242001
Wymer520151995
Denmar520241980
Green Bank520241979
Valley Head320241966
Bowden220242004
Meadowville220241984
Ruthbelle220222013
Hix120042004
Smoot119931993
Pedro120232008
Hanover120222022
Bismark119951995
Canaan120241974
Three Forks120081999
Strange Crk120082008
Richwood120242006
Dailey120241975
Mo Of Seneca120242008
Albright119731969
Sleepy Creek119761976
Clinton119781978

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.