BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in New York has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blackburnian Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in New York: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blackburnian Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.88–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.88–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.823.1
20272.00.833.1
20282.00.853.1
20292.00.863.1
20302.00.883.2

Blackburnian Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet2820171979
Sabattis1319831966
Old Forge 21220192007
Mcdonough1120171967
St Regis Fls1120171976
Petersburg1020131966
Blue Ridge S1020101969
Cattaraugus920191969
Gabriels820251975
Wanakena720251980
Mckeever620221970
Highmarket620251975
Old Forge620061971
North River620251966
S Berne 2620242023
Degrasse520251981
Downsville520191982
Horseshoe L.520171993
Warwick419711971
N Wilmurt419971969
Warrensburg420191969
Dexter Lake419751968
Milford420231980
Platte Cove320181979
Swain320071967

Blackburnian Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.