BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Virginia has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.5–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.5–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.75.5
20273.51.65.5
20283.51.65.4
20293.41.55.4
20303.41.55.3

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown4620101967
Dismal Swamp4320161992
Marion2319821976
Shenandoa Np2120251993
Taylorstown 22020252012
Jerome1920251971
Big Meadows1920251993
Churchville1720251966
Front Royal1520251993
Stanley1220251966
Edinburg1220251968
Hebron 21220252023
Iron Mountain 21220132012
Great Falls1119781966
Isom1120241969
Putnam1120251969
Partlow1020151977
Iron Mountain 31020232014
Tryme920251975
Newbern919821968
Fincastle920251966
Clinchport919781967
Cornland920141975
Star Tannery720251977
Brandy Station720252018

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.