BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Virginia has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.65.4
20263.51.65.4
20273.41.55.3
20283.41.55.3
20293.31.45.2

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown4620101967
Dismal Swamp4320161992
Fincastle2320241966
Marion2319821976
Jerome1720231971
Shenandoa Np1620241993
Big Meadows1620241993
Tryme1420241975
Taylorstown 21320242012
Star Tannery1220241977
Stanley1220241966
Blacksburg1220241988
Iron Mountain 21220132012
Great Falls1119781966
Isom1120241969
Rural Retrt1120241982
Churchville1020241966
Partlow1020151977
Iron Mountain 31020232014
Newbern919821968
Clinchport919781967
Cornland920141975
Edinburg820241968
Hebron 2820242023
Front Royal820241993

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.