BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Missouri has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.62.64.6
20273.62.64.6
20283.62.64.6
20293.62.64.7
20303.72.74.7

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfall2520251994
Lucerne2420252016
Emden2420242017
Kahoka22320242002
Rensselaer1520251972
New Hampton1420252014
Sticklervill1320251970
Trenton1220251967
Frankford1220251985
Harrisonville1220232017
Luray1120252015
Frazier1020241967
Laclede920251994
New Point920251994
Auburn920252014
Madison820241971
Kirksville820251994
Queen City820222017
Kahoka719981967
Rockingham620251969
Millwood620251999
Danville520251967
Watson520251991
Hamilton419851972
Bolckow419921967

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.