BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Missouri has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.64.6
20263.62.64.6
20273.62.64.6
20283.62.64.7
20293.72.74.7

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne2420212016
Emden2420242017
Kahoka22320242002
New Hampton1820242014
Auburn1820242014
Rensselaer1220241972
Sticklervill1220241970
Mcfall1220241994
Harrisonville1220232017
Trenton1120241967
Frazier1020241967
Frankford920241985
Madison820241971
Queen City820222017
Kahoka719981967
New Point620241994
Luray620242015
Richland620212015
Laclede520241994
Eugene520232013
Huntsville420241967
Hamilton419851972
Bolckow419921967
Tarkio419891968
Kirksville420241994

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.