BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Vermont has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.74.49.0
20266.74.49.0
20276.74.39.0
20286.64.38.9
20296.64.38.9

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaftsbury2720241966
North Pownal1720241966
W Rutland1720241966
Fletcher1320241968
Bristol1320181995
Northfld Fls1120211980
Middlesex1120241968
Marlboro1020241966
Gaysville1020211966
S Wallingfrd1020221966
Landgrove920241966
Hinesburg819941966
Post Mills720241966
St Johnsbury720241970
East Calais720241966
Hardwick720241966
Stratton620241966
S Reading620241966
East Haven620241966
Waterville419801967
Newbury 2420222008
Stowe420231988
Colchester320241986
Greensboro220241967
Newbury120041986

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.