BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Vermont has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.4–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.4–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.04.49.6
20277.04.49.6
20287.04.49.6
20297.04.49.5
20307.04.49.5

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaftsbury2720251966
North Pownal2420251966
Bristol2320251995
Fletcher2220251968
W Rutland2020251966
Gaysville1720251966
East Haven1620251966
S Wallingfrd1020221966
Marlboro920251966
Hinesburg819941966
Northfld Fls720251980
East Calais720241966
Hardwick720241966
Landgrove620251966
S Reading620241966
Post Mills620251966
St Johnsbury620251970
Middlesex620251968
Grand Isle620251967
Colchester520251986
Waterville419801967
Newbury 2420222008
Stowe420231988
Greensboro320251967
Stratton220251966

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.