BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Minnesota has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.96.2
20265.13.96.2
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Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 22520242013
Sherburne Nr2420241990
Caledonia2320121993
Whitewater2220001994
Lake Bronson1920111978
Brook Park1720241998
Chatfield 21620242003
Mille Lacs1320241967
Pine River1320241967
Sherry Lake1320221969
Courtland1220241978
Ashby1220211997
Brainerd1120241993
Whitewater 21020192011
Money Creek920241967
Lakeville920211968
Debs920241969
Le Roy920241993
Frontenac920241993
Bagley920061995
St Stephen820161967
Glyndon820241979
Beltrami820241967
Greenbush820241993
Knapp720241967

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.