BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Minnesota has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.0–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.0–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.13.96.4
20275.24.06.4
20285.24.06.4
20295.24.06.4
20305.24.06.4

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 23720252013
Millville3420251967
Caledonia2320121993
Whitewater2220001994
Chatfield 22120252003
Lake Bronson1920111978
Knapp1820251967
Sherburne Nr1820251990
St Stephen1320251967
Mille Lacs1320241967
Sherry Lake1320221969
Minnetonka1220251969
Cromwell1220251967
Backus1220251967
Ashby1220211997
Lakeville1120251968
Brainerd1120241993
Glyndon1020251979
Waskish1020251978
Whitewater 21020192011
Frontenac920241993
Bagley920061995
Greenbush920251993
Nebish920251982
Chandler820251980

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.