BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Texas has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has collapsed in Texas: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.08
20260.000.000.08
20270.000.000.07
20280.000.000.07
20290.000.000.07

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stowell620091983
Lance Rosier Bith220192018
Town Bluff220151970
Pidcoke219951995
Fred220092003
Henrietta219761976
Hearne120012001
Big Sandy Bith120182018
Schroeder119771977
Blue Ridge120092009
Winnie120161996
Katy120242024
Arenosa Crk119751975
Utopia119721972
Livingston120041973
New Waverly120061970
Oak Grove119681968
Gause119711971
Peach Creek119671967
San Saba119751975
Diboll120241972
Caledonia120221971
Massey Lake120052005
Oakwood119801972
Thornton119791979

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.