BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Maryland has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in Maryland: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 19–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 19–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211824
2026211824
2027211824
2028221924
2029221925

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emmitsburg10920241966
Olney10420241966
Earlton9720242014
Madonna7220222009
Bachman Mill6620241966
Pleasant Val6020241966
Williamsport5920241966
Finzel5920241995
Eklo5720181966
Warfieldsbrg5120241966
Wheaton4720241990
Jennings4620241995
Randallstown3820131966
Forest Grove3520232011
Ijamsville3520241986
La Plata3320091966
Potomac Park3220241970
Smithsburg3220141966
Wolfsville3020241966
Van Bibber2920131966
Upper Xrds2520081966
Silver Spg2319891966
Largo2319811966
Grove Neck2319961992
Norwood2220121966

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.