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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Maryland has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in Maryland: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 19–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 19–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211824
2027211824
2028221924
2029221925
2030221925

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emmitsburg12220251966
Olney11620251966
Earlton9720242014
Jennings7320251995
Madonna7220222009
Eklo5720181966
Bachman Mill5520251966
Wheaton5520251990
Williamsport5120251966
Pleasant Val5120251966
Warfieldsbrg4020251966
Ijamsville4020251986
Randallstown3820131966
Finzel3520251995
Forest Grove3520232011
La Plata3320091966
Smithsburg3220141966
Wolfsville2920251966
Van Bibber2920131966
Upper Xrds2520081966
Potomac Park2420251970
Silver Spg2319891966
Largo2319811966
Grove Neck2319961992
Norwood2220121966

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.